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With stagnant import volumes since 2021, and import prices at levels below those suggested by fundamentals, foreign exporters face an uphill battle to convert access to the Chinese market into revenues. Notably, the volume stagnation predates the recent growth pessimism in China, diverges markedly from emerging market peers in East Asia, and is …

World exports of goods and services enjoyed boomtime growth in the 1990s and early 2000s. Since 2008, trade in goods – specifically manufactured goods – have plateaued; services exports have not. Services trade continues to ride the go-go growth path it has been on since the 1990s.

This year China has been repeatedly accused of resorting to export-led growth (as if that were a crime), flooding world markets with goods, and exacerbating trade tensions. In this briefing I provide a measured, evidence-based review of recent Chinese export dynamics, considering volume and price effects as well as benchmarking Chinese export pe…

The trade policy stance of foreign governments to China’s goods exports is reviewed here. A balanced approach is taken— examining new import reforms facilitating sourcing from China as well as new import curbs. Further perspective is provided by contrasting the treatment of Chinese exports with those from a peer group, the ASEAN nations. This ye…

On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump slammed subsidy-driven approaches to attracting foreign investment in U.S. manufacturing. Putting tariffs on imported goods and saving subsidy outlays was his preference. Since 2017, the United States has seen two regimes for attracting greenfield foreign direct investment. One involved carrots (subsidies) and an…

Already certain American trading partners have received tariff threats to their exports, prompting questions as to how best to respond. Drawing on the lessons from the first Trump Administration, statements made by the President-elect and his circle, and the existing pattern of global trade flows, this briefing recommends a hard-headed assessmen…

Although counter-intuitive at first, higher import tariffs on goods can affect the value of cross-border services trade. Since higher U.S. import tariffs won’t change the net saving position of the United States, the current account remains the same. Consequently, if the Trump Administration achieves—even partially—its goal of reducing the U.S. …

Unfortunately, some trade policymaking operates in a silo sealed off from macroeconomic logic. While some analysts have recently highlighted the constraints that macro relationships play should the U.S. raise import tariffs, I go further. Until American firms, governments and households bring their spending closer into line with their incomes, U…

National support measures for firms in sectors conducive to the net-zero transition are typically justified entirely on national terms. In fact, analysis reveals that subsidy awards and import curbs by one nation typically trigger similar responses from others within 6-24 months. This “echo” effect raises concerns about potential trade conflicts…

Contrary to reports, evidence from official sources reveals there is no broad-based Chinese surge in exports at the sectoral level. Four out of 98 Chapters (sectors) of the UN Harmonized System of Products each contributed more than 10% to the export growth seen from Q1-Q3 2023 to Q1-Q3 2024. Moreover, by the end of Q3 2024 only 3 of the 20 larg…

Two weeks after the US presidential election, although specifics about the tariff moves of the next US Administration remain unclear, four tariff-related scenarios can be identified that take into account the possible responses of foreign governments and currency market outcomes. These scenarios are outlined here including their triggers and lik…

At this critical juncture for world trade, particular care is needed in interpreting monthly Chinese export releases. Atypically low exports in 2023 inflate the 2024 year-on-year percentage increases in monthly Chinese exports. Better to compare the officially released year-to-date export totals, available at present from 2021. These show that C…

Should the next US Administration raise sharply import tariffs on Chinese goods then there is a risk that some Chinese shipments will be deflected to other economies. Voices inside Europe call for pre-emptive increases in import tariffs to forestall such trade deflection. This briefing identifies and scales trade deflection of Chinese products t…